Satellite IoT connections forecast to hit 197.7M by 2035

Omdia forecasts satellite IoT connections will grow from 7.7 million in 2023 to 197.7 million by 2035, at a 31 percent annual rate.

The research firm’s forecast covers both low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary orbit (GEO) satellite constellations serving IoT devices. Omdia frames the market as entering a growth phase, with expansion split unevenly between the two orbital categories.

LEO growth far outpaces GEO market

LEO satellite IoT connections are set to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 88.6 percent over the forecast period, Omdia’s data shows, compared with a more moderate 7.3 percent CAGR for the geostationary orbit segment.

The firm ties LEO’s faster growth to three factors. Satellite deployment has quickened across the sector, bandwidth and availability continue expanding as more LEO constellations enter service, and connectivity costs are falling as networks reach commercial maturity.

The gap between the two orbital categories reflects differences in satellite economics and launch cadence rather than a single driver. Omdia’s forecast treats LEO and GEO as separate growth tracks feeding into the combined 197.7 million connection total for 2035.

John Canali, Principal Analyst, IoT at Omdia, said: “While the technical advances in the satellite market are significant, their timing is equally important.

“As IoT matures enterprises increasingly need global coverage without connectivity gaps. as well as greater resilience when terrestrial connectivity is unavailable. These requirements will become more pressing as IoT devices support a growing range of data-intensive models and automated applications.”

Canali’s comment frames satellite connectivity as a complement to terrestrial networks for organisations running IoT deployments across regions where cellular or fixed-line coverage is inconsistent. The report does not quantify how many enterprises currently run hybrid terrestrial-satellite IoT deployments, nor does it break out adoption figures by company size.

Adoption spans agriculture to logistics

Omdia expects growing satellite adoption across several IoT verticals. Agriculture and environmental monitoring feature among them, alongside defence and military use cases. Energy and utilities operators are also named, along with transportation and logistics firms.

The report does not provide connection-count forecasts broken down by each of these verticals individually. The 197.7 million figure for 2035 represents the combined total across all sectors and orbital categories rather than a sum of published per-vertical projections.

The automotive sector stands out as the fastest-growing vertical in Omdia’s forecast. Connected vehicles using satellite links are expected to increase from just 11,000 in 2023 to more than 112 million by 2035, a CAGR of 115 percent.

Geely, Tesla, BMW, and Stellantis are among the manufacturers testing or deploying satellite connectivity, Omdia’s research shows. The firm frames the ambition as a “network of networks,” enabling vehicles to switch dynamically between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks. That points to automotive connectivity architectures designed to fall back on satellite links when cellular coverage drops, rather than treating satellite as a standalone channel.

The 115 percent CAGR for connected vehicles outpaces both the LEO segment’s 88.6 percent growth rate and the overall satellite IoT market’s 31 percent rate, making automotive the single largest driver of unit growth in Omdia’s model between 2023 and 2035.

Starting from a base of 11,000 vehicles, even a market that reaches 112 million connections by 2035 implies most of that growth occurs in the back half of the forecast period, once satellite modem costs and bandwidth availability improve in line with the LEO trends.

Deployment timelines remain unclear

Omdia’s research does not specify deployment timetables for the four manufacturers named, nor does it break out unit costs for onboard satellite connectivity hardware. The forecast also does not state which specific vehicle models or markets carry satellite modems today, beyond describing the four companies as actively testing or deploying the technology.

The figures describe a market-level trajectory rather than a deployment guide, and the CAGR differences between LEO, GEO, and automotive segments suggest that hardware and cost assumptions will differ significantly depending on which orbital category and vertical an organisation targets.

LEO’s growth is attributed especially to satellite deployment pace, bandwidth expansion, and falling connectivity costs, three factors that a procurement team could track against supplier roadmaps rather than treating the 31 percent headline CAGR as uniform across every use case.

Omdia’s forecast puts the clearest number on where that growth concentrates: connected vehicles rising from 11,000 in 2023 to more than 112 million by 2035, at a 115 percent CAGR, with Geely, Tesla, BMW, and Stellantis named as the manufacturers currently testing the underlying network-switching technology.

See also: Celona Orion targets converged wireless for AI-native enterprises

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