AI traffic pressures 5G networks as subscriptions pass 3 billion

AI traffic on 5G networks is becoming a larger consideration for operators, even as 5G subscriptions pass 3 billion globally, according to Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report. The technology now carries about half of the world’s mobile data traffic.

Mobile network data traffic grew 22 per cent between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, reaching 210 exabytes per month. The report also said uplink traffic is becoming a larger network consideration for operators. AI-enabled devices and applications are generating more data from users and machines back into mobile networks.

5G becomes a larger share of mobile traffic

During 2025, around 660 million 5G subscriptions were added worldwide. By the end of the year, 5G accounted for one-third of all mobile subscriptions.

North America recorded the highest 5G penetration at 79 per cent, followed by North East Asia at 60 per cent, Western Europe at 54 per cent, and Gulf Cooperation Council countries at 53 per cent.

Around 390 service providers have launched commercial 5G services, while more than 90 have launched 5G standalone networks. Ericsson expects 5G subscriptions to reach 6.4 billion by 2031, representing about two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions.

The report expects 5G to overtake 4G as the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2027. That would be nine years after 5G’s commercial launch.

The migration is reducing legacy subscriptions. In the first quarter of 2026, 4G subscriptions fell by 77 million to just under 4.6 billion, while 3G subscriptions declined by 18 million and 2G subscriptions by 23 million.

Network shutdowns are also continuing. By the end of 2025, 80 service providers had completed 3G shutdowns, while 46 had fully turned off 2G services.

FWA grows as operators expand 5G use cases

Ericsson said 5G-based Fixed Wireless Access is being adopted by more service providers. Ericsson said 83 per cent of surveyed service providers now offer FWA, while 175 service providers offer FWA over 5G, representing 71 per cent of all FWA providers.

Global FWA connections are forecast to rise from 185 million at the end of 2025 to 350 million by the end of 2031. Close to 85 per cent of those connections are expected to run over 5G.

FWA also accounts for a growing share of mobile network traffic. It represented 28 per cent of global mobile network data traffic at the end of 2025 and is projected to reach about 187 exabytes per month by 2031, or 36 per cent of total mobile network data traffic.

More operators are also using speed-based FWA tariffs. Ericsson said 57 per cent of FWA service providers now offer these plans, up from 51 per cent a year earlier.

5G coverage expanded in 2025, with an additional 400 million people gaining access during the year. Global 5G population coverage reached 60 per cent by the end of 2025.

Outside mainland China, 5G coverage is expected to rise from 50 per cent in 2025 to about 85 per cent in 2031. 5G mid-band coverage outside mainland China reached about 45 per cent by the end of 2025.

Coverage remains uneven. Africa had the lowest total and mid-band 5G coverage at around 10 per cent by the end of 2025. North America, mainland China, and India had total and mid-band coverage of about 90 to 95 per cent.

AI puts more pressure on uplink capacity

Ericsson said AI-related applications are expected to increase uplink capacity requirements. Its analysis of 55 service providers in 2025 found that 43 recorded faster uplink growth than downlink growth.

Of those service providers, 17 saw uplink growth more than 1.5 times higher than downlink growth. Downlink traffic still accounts for the larger share of total traffic, according to the report.

Mobile networks have historically been designed around downlink-heavy services such as video streaming and web browsing. Ericsson listed several use cases that increase uplink demand, including video calls, user-generated content, cloud storage, smartglasses, drones, and autonomous systems.

A typical HD smartphone video call generates about 1 to 3 Mbps per uplink stream. Smartglasses and AI-enabled wearable use cases can require uplink throughput of 1 to 10 Mbps, depending on the application.

Autonomous vehicle telemetry can require intermittent uplink throughput of 1 to 10 Mbps during operation. Commercial drones can generate several Mbps of uplink traffic per camera when live HD video is transmitted during flight.

Ericsson modelled several AI adoption scenarios for 2031. In a medium adoption scenario, uplink traffic would be three times higher than in 2025. In a high adoption scenario, uplink traffic would be five times higher.

The report said networks are still expected to remain downlink-dominated overall. However, AI-supported applications are forecast to account for 8 per cent of the total traffic increase in the medium uplink growth scenario. In the high growth scenario, they are forecast to account for 20 per cent.

Network slicing moves into commercial services

Ericsson also reported more commercial differentiated connectivity services. Its updated analysis found 84 commercial differentiated connectivity offerings out of 151 identified offerings, up from 65 commercial offerings in the previous report.

Europe accounted for about 41 per cent of commercial differentiated connectivity offerings. Asia-Pacific accounted for about 24 per cent, while North America accounted for about 16 per cent.

Most new commercial offerings are in the business segment, though consumer and business-to-business-to-consumer services are also increasing. Consumer use cases include gaming, live event connectivity, video calling, and premium FWA. Business use cases include payment terminals, broadcasting, and enterprise services with service-level agreements.

Ericsson said 5G standalone supports network slicing. Network slicing allows operators to create separate logical networks on shared physical infrastructure, with different service parameters for each slice.

SoftBank tests 5G slicing at Suzuka Circuit

SoftBank tested 5G standalone network slicing at the 2026 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit. The trial used five network slices on shared physical infrastructure, with different performance parameters assigned to each use case.

More than 315,000 people attended the event over three days. The trial supported general attendee connectivity, QR code payments, point-of-sale terminals, and live broadcasting.

SoftBank increased capacity through Massive MIMO and millimetre-wave spectrum. It used software controls and network slicing to manage service quality. Per-minute optimisation was also used to adjust network performance during the event.

Ericsson said payment terminals on the dedicated slice maintained stable connectivity during congestion, with no reported service unavailability. The trial also supported live broadcasting, which used uplink capacity for video transmission.

For general attendees, 5G standalone customers saw average weekend performance improve by four times in the downlink and more than 14 times in the uplink compared with the same event in 2025. Non-standalone customers saw performance improve by around 1.5 times in the downlink and six times in the uplink.

The trial also examined the limits of 15-minute network monitoring intervals at crowded venues, where traffic conditions can change quickly. Ericsson said per-minute observability allowed faster automated adjustment of radio parameters.

6G planning begins

Ericsson said 6G standardisation discussions have begun. The first implementable specifications are targeted for completion by the end of 2028 or early 2029.

Early commercial 6G services are expected around 2030, with launch timing varying by region and country. Ericsson expects early adopters to include the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and GCC countries.

Global 6G subscriptions are forecast to reach 180 million by the end of 2031. The forecast does not include early uptake from AI-enabled devices. These include autonomous vehicles, smartglasses, and drones.

The report also expects satellite broadband subscriptions to rise from around 10 million at the end of 2025 to around 33 million by the end of 2031. By comparison, Ericsson forecasts 350 million FWA connections by the same year. Total fixed broadband connections are expected to reach around 2 billion worldwide.

(Photo by James Yarema)

See also: Ericsson adds AI in RAN software for 5G network optimisation

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